ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

40.14%

Daniel Milavsky

USA

59.86%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.24

Market probability

58.18% / 41.82%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Milavsky is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1685 vs 1646), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1632 vs 1593) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1645.5 Elo 1684.9

1593.3 Elo (surface) 1631.5

53 Wins 0

35 Wins (surface) 0

8 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.005 Dominance ratio 1.005

117 Rank 316

23.2 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Daniel Milavsky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Daniel Milavsky

1st Serve In %

49.5%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Daniel Milavsky

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Daniel Milavsky

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

Daniel Milavsky #316

7-6 6-4

5 Aces 7

9 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 84

34 First Serve In 55

26 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10

20 Winners 22

39 Unforced Errors 44

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky — Prediction