ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

56.67%

Dane Sweeny

Australia

43.33%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.08

Market probability

55.76% / 44.24%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1770 vs 1727), more wins on hard courts (40 vs 24) and a better head-to-head record against Dane Sweeny (1-0).

Player Comparison

1769.8 Elo 1727.2

1659.7 Elo (surface) 1648.9

129 Wins (Challenger) 75

86 Wins (surface) 69

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.151 Dominance ratio 1.167

123 Rank 112

23.4 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–7L · 36.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Dane Sweeny

1st Serve In %

47.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

35.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.3%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.5%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Dane Sweeny

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

41.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 0 Dane Sweeny

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #114

Dane Sweeny #121

1-6 7-6 6-3

2 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 6

100 Service Points 101

46 First Serve In 54

33 First Serve Won 38

26 Second Serve Won 21

10 Break Points Saved 6

15 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki — Last 10

Dane Sweeny — Last 10