ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

62.06%

Dane Sweeny

Australia

37.94%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.29

Market probability

59.02% / 40.98%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1612 vs 1507), a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1587) and more wins on hard courts (34 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1664.0 Elo 1586.7

1612.0 Elo (surface) 1506.7

52 Wins 24

34 Wins (surface) 21

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.919 Dominance ratio 1.170

114 Rank 121

23.2 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Dane Sweeny

1st Serve In %

49.5%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Dane Sweeny

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Dane Sweeny

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #114

Dane Sweeny #121

1-6 7-6 6-3

2 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 6

100 Service Points 101

46 First Serve In 54

33 First Serve Won 38

26 Second Serve Won 21

10 Break Points Saved 6

15 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny — Prediction