ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Charles Broom

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

67.87%

Charles Broom

Great Britain

32.13%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.36

Market probability

60.36% / 39.64%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1672 vs 1566), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1616 vs 1589) and a stronger return game (41.8% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1671.7 Elo 1566.0

1615.8 Elo (surface) 1589.4

127 Wins (Challenger) 71

84 Wins (surface) 52

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.051 Dominance ratio 0.775

114 Rank 283

23.2 Age 28.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Charles Broom

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Charles Broom

1st Serve In %

49.5%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Charles Broom

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

60.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

32.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Charles Broom

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #114

Charles Broom #283

2-6 6-2 6-4

2 Aces 4

8 Double Faults 6

86 Service Points 98

38 First Serve In 62

25 First Serve Won 35

21 Second Serve Won 15

8 Break Points Saved 7

13 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Grass Nottingham CH · 2024-06-10

R32

Charles Broom #283

Shintaro Mochizuki #142

6-7(9) 6-4 6-2

10 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 110

64 First Serve In 68

46 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Charles Broom — Prediction