ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

48.33%

Braden Shick

USA

51.67%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1660.1 Elo 1709.7

1610.2 Elo (surface) 1745.7

54 Wins 1

36 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.026 Dominance ratio 0.759

117 Rank 215

23.2 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Braden Shick

1st Serve In %

49.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

42.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Braden Shick

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Braden Shick

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

Braden Shick #215

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 3

53 Service Points 60

25 First Serve In 33

20 First Serve Won 18

14 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 10

20 Winners 12

22 Unforced Errors 18

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick — Prediction