ATP tennis predict — Sergio Callejon Hernando vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 08:15

Predicted probability

Sergio Callejon Hernando

Spain

14.37%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

85.63%

Average Odds

3.62 / 1.25

Market probability

25.67% / 74.33%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1731 vs 1421), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1786 vs 1496) and a stronger serve (66.9% vs 58.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1421.1 Elo 1731.1

1495.9 Elo (surface) 1786.4

17 Wins (Challenger) 72

11 Wins (surface) 69

8 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.986 Dominance ratio 1.098

485 Rank 275

22.0 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sergio Callejon Hernando

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergio Callejon Hernando Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

—

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.2%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergio Callejon Hernando Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

—

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sergio Callejon Hernando 0 – 0 Ilia Simakin

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Ilia Simakin #275

Sergio Callejon Hernando #485

7-6 2-6 6-2

1 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 7

112 Service Points 82

62 First Serve In 48

35 First Serve Won 38

32 Second Serve Won 14

9 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.6

Sergio Callejon Hernando vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction