ATP tennis predict — Sergey Fomin vs Yi Zhou

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

40.64%

Yi Zhou

China

59.36%

Average Odds

2.90 / 1.37

Market probability

32.08% / 67.92%

Why This Prediction?

Yi Zhou is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1513 vs 1456), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger serve (63.1% vs 57.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1456.4 Elo 1513.2

1520.3 Elo (surface) 1483.8

56 Wins (Challenger) 44

30 Wins (surface) 38

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.257 Dominance ratio 1.050

295 Rank 248

25.6 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sergey Fomin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Yi Zhou

1st Serve In %

64.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Yi Zhou

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sergey Fomin 0 – 0 Yi Zhou

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Yi Zhou #248

Sergey Fomin #295

7-6 7-5

5 Aces 14

2 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 70

48 First Serve In 44

34 First Serve Won 38

16 Second Serve Won 13

6 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Sergey Fomin vs Yi Zhou — Prediction