ATP tennis predict — Sergey Fomin vs Timofei Derepasko

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

67.59%

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

32.41%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.60

Market probability

64.36% / 35.64%

Why This Prediction?

Sergey Fomin is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.3% vs 59.5% of service points won), more career match wins (56 vs 7) and more aces per game (0.29 vs 0.26).

Player Comparison

1522.3 Elo 1594.4

1519.1 Elo (surface) 1598.7

56 Wins (Challenger) 7

30 Wins (surface) 7

5 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.280 Dominance ratio 1.125

289 Rank 656

25.7 Age 19.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sergey Fomin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Timofei Derepasko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Timofei Derepasko

1st Serve In %

64.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.50

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Timofei Derepasko

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

41.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sergey Fomin and Timofei Derepasko have never played each other.

Sergey Fomin vs Timofei Derepasko — Prediction