ATP tennis predict — Sergey Fomin vs Kasidit Samrej

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · R16 09:30

Predicted probability

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

43.90%

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

56.10%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.34

Market probability

60.15% / 39.85%

Why This Prediction?

Kasidit Samrej is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1561 vs 1434), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1556 vs 1508) and a stronger return game (37.7% vs 33.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1434.0 Elo 1560.5

1508.1 Elo (surface) 1556.1

54 Wins (Challenger) 41

28 Wins (surface) 41

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.219 Dominance ratio 1.043

305 Rank 406

25.5 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sergey Fomin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Kasidit Samrej

1st Serve In %

64.7%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.8%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sergey Fomin Kasidit Samrej

Break Points Saved %

69.2%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

78.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sergey Fomin 0 – 0 Kasidit Samrej

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-13

R16

Sergey Fomin #305

Kasidit Samrej #406

6-1 6-4

8 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 8

55 Service Points 76

27 First Serve In 40

22 First Serve Won 23

17 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 12

5 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Sergey Fomin vs Kasidit Samrej — Prediction