ATP tennis predict — Seong Chan Hong vs Rei Sakamoto

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Seong Chan Hong

South Korea

28.56%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

71.44%

Average Odds

3.76 / 1.25

Market probability

24.95% / 75.05%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1809 vs 1714), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1775 vs 1686) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 60.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1713.5 Elo 1809.0

1686.3 Elo (surface) 1774.8

15 Wins 18

14 Wins (surface) 14

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.957 Dominance ratio 0.962

1078 Rank 137

29.3 Age 20.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Seong Chan Hong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Seong Chan Hong Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

59.3%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.2%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Seong Chan Hong Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

53.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.4%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Seong Chan Hong and Rei Sakamoto have never played each other.

Seong Chan Hong vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction