ATP tennis predict — Semen Pankin vs Yosuke Watanuki

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - 1. round 08:20

Predicted probability

Semen Pankin

Russia

24.82%

Yosuke Watanuki

Japan

75.18%

Average Odds

2.83 / 1.38

Market probability

32.78% / 67.22%

Why This Prediction?

Yosuke Watanuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1675 vs 1467), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1665 vs 1462) and more wins on hard courts (50 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1467.5 Elo 1675.2

1461.7 Elo (surface) 1665.2

9 Wins (Challenger) 157

9 Wins (surface) 143

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.904 Dominance ratio 1.155

432 Rank 406

27.1 Age 28.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–7L · 12.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Yosuke Watanuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Semen Pankin Yosuke Watanuki

1st Serve In %

—

50.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

51.7%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Semen Pankin Yosuke Watanuki

Break Points Saved %

—

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Semen Pankin 0 – 1 Yosuke Watanuki

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Yosuke Watanuki #420

Semen Pankin #421

6-3 7-5

8 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

57 Service Points 75

30 First Serve In 43

25 First Serve Won 26

15 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Semen Pankin vs Yosuke Watanuki — Prediction