ATP tennis predict — Semen Pankin vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Semen Pankin

Russia

25.97%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

74.03%

Average Odds

4.14 / 1.21

Market probability

22.62% / 77.38%

Why This Prediction?

Alexis Galarneau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1650 vs 1476), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1511) and more wins on hard courts (164 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1476.5 Elo 1649.6

1511.1 Elo (surface) 1592.6

9 Wins (Challenger) 195

9 Wins (surface) 164

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.891 Dominance ratio 0.893

421 Rank 183

27.0 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Semen Pankin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Semen Pankin Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

—

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.9%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Semen Pankin Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

—

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

—

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.4%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Semen Pankin 0 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Alexis Galarneau #183

Semen Pankin #421

7-6 6-4

9 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

72 Service Points 68

40 First Serve In 42

33 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Semen Pankin vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction