ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

32.57%

Kei Nishikori

Japan

67.43%

Average Odds

1.87 / 1.87

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Kei Nishikori is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1782 vs 1666), a higher Elo rating (1776 vs 1659) and more wins on hard courts (331 vs 30).

Player Comparison

1658.6 Elo 1776.0

1666.3 Elo (surface) 1782.4

104 Wins 490

30 Wins (surface) 331

5 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.871 Dominance ratio 0.871

125 Rank 477

30.3 Age 36.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Ofner

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Ofner Kei Nishikori

1st Serve In %

58.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Ofner Kei Nishikori

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.6%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

48.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Ofner 1 – 0 Kei Nishikori

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Kei Nishikori #477

Sebastian Ofner #125

6-1 2-6 6-2

4 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

63 Service Points 89

36 First Serve In 54

25 First Serve Won 37

11 Second Serve Won 17

8 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 7

22 Winners 15

20 Unforced Errors 21

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Miami Masters · 2024-03-18

R128

Sebastian Ofner #40

Kei Nishikori #351

6-3 6-4

9 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 57

37 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 22

16 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori — Prediction