ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

40.22%

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

59.78%

Average Odds

7.15 / 1.10

Market probability

13.33% / 86.67%

Why This Prediction?

Raphael Collignon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1769 vs 1558), a stronger serve (65.7% vs 57.5% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (53 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1558.4 Elo 1768.8

1558.5 Elo (surface) 1552.9

1 Wins 31

1 Wins (surface) 14

1 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.978 Dominance ratio 1.009

760 Rank 38

22.6 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Raphael Collignon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Raphael Collignon

1st Serve In %

62.4%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.3%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.3%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Raphael Collignon

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

29.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%

73.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

51.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Gorzny 0 – 0 Raphael Collignon

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Sebastian Gorzny #731

Raphael Collignon #38

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6

12 Aces 13

6 Double Faults 17

177 Service Points 157

112 First Serve In 93

75 First Serve Won 66

32 Second Serve Won 32

17 Break Points Saved 8

22 Break Points Faced 13

59 Winners 40

68 Unforced Errors 53

7.2 Average Odds 1.1

Sebastian Gorzny vs Raphael Collignon — Prediction