ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Gorzny vs Marc Polmans

ATP Hard Winston Salem · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

61.22%

Marc Polmans

Australia

38.78%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.02

Market probability

54.30% / 45.70%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Gorzny is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1601 vs 1597), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger serve (65.9% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1600.8 Elo 1597.2

1614.1 Elo (surface) 1610.4

0 Wins 47

0 Wins (surface) 27

0 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.895 Dominance ratio 0.895

782 Rank 362

22.6 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Marc Polmans

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Marc Polmans

1st Serve In %

62.4%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.3%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.3%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Marc Polmans

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

31.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

26.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Gorzny 0 – 0 Marc Polmans

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-22

qualification - round of 16

Sebastian Gorzny #782

Marc Polmans #362

6-2 1-6 6-2

9 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 6

76 Service Points 71

51 First Serve In 38

34 First Serve Won 24

6 Second Serve Won 12

9 Break Points Saved 2

13 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Sebastian Gorzny vs Marc Polmans — Prediction