ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Gorzny vs Luca Staeheli

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 01:30

Predicted probability

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

55.38%

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

44.62%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.07

Market probability

69.61% / 30.39%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Gorzny is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1641 vs 1509), a stronger serve (65.9% vs 63.0% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (2 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1660.3 Elo 1658.1

1641.1 Elo (surface) 1509.2

5 Wins (Challenger) 13

5 Wins (surface) 2

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.024 Dominance ratio 1.330

484 Rank 456

22.6 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Luca Staeheli

1st Serve In %

62.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.3%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.0%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Gorzny Luca Staeheli

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Gorzny 0 – 0 Luca Staeheli

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Sebastian Gorzny #484

Luca Staeheli #456

7-5 6-2

5 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 27

17 Second Serve Won 11

9 Break Points Saved 4

15 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.3

Sebastian Gorzny vs Luca Staeheli — Prediction