ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

31.00%

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

69.00%

Average Odds

3.24 / 1.33

Market probability

29.10% / 70.90%

Why This Prediction?

Valentin Vacherot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1945 vs 1812), a higher Elo rating (1998 vs 1890) and a stronger serve (67.5% vs 56.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1890.4 Elo 1997.7

1811.6 Elo (surface) 1945.5

149 Wins 55

42 Wins (surface) 34

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.760 Dominance ratio 1.052

53 Rank 14

25.8 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–7L · 12.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Valentin Vacherot

1st Serve In %

61.7%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.1%

79.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.7%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Valentin Vacherot

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez and Valentin Vacherot have never played each other.

Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot — Prediction