ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · R16 03:20

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

50.57%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

49.43%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.46

Market probability

61.96% / 38.04%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1771.8 Elo 1612.0

1534.9 Elo (surface) 1580.0

64 Wins (Challenger) 56

0 Wins (surface) 26

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.239 Dominance ratio 1.113

53 Rank 292

25.6 Age 21.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1st Serve In %

63.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 0 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-21

R16

Sebastian Baez #53

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #292

6-4 6-3

2 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 4

62 Service Points 63

36 First Serve In 37

28 First Serve Won 24

15 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Sebastian Baez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Prediction