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Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic — Prediction

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

49.08%

Miomir Kecmanovic

Serbia

50.92%

Average Odds

2.19  /  1.66

Market probability

43.12%  /  56.88%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1760.8 Elo 1761.4
1816.1 Elo (surface) 1755.5
143 Wins 209
102 Wins (surface) 54
5 Last 15 form 5
0 Head-to-head wins 3
0.792 Dominance ratio 1.100
56 Rank 58
25.6 Age 26.9
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Miomir Kecmanovic

1st Serve In %

63.0%
58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%
74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%
45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%
32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%
48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.18
0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%
58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%
52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%
38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%
57.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33
0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Miomir Kecmanovic

Break Points Saved %

52.7%
64.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%
35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%
65.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%
49.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 3 Miomir Kecmanovic

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-21

1. round

Sebastian Baez #56

Miomir Kecmanovic #58

6-3 3-6 6-4
5 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 2
86 Service Points 97
60 First Serve In 57
45 First Serve Won 43
13 Second Serve Won 17
3 Break Points Saved 10
5 Break Points Faced 13
27 Winners 32
30 Unforced Errors 43
2.2 Average Odds 1.7
Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

R128

Miomir Kecmanovic #46

Sebastian Baez #38

6-7(3) 6-7(4) 6-4 6-2 6-2
6 Aces 8
2 Double Faults 6
163 Service Points 189
91 First Serve In 135
61 First Serve Won 78
38 Second Serve Won 23
8 Break Points Saved 17
13 Break Points Faced 27
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Paris Masters · 2024-10-28

R64

Miomir Kecmanovic #55

Sebastian Baez #26

6-4 6-7(6) 7-5
12 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 1
108 Service Points 95
56 First Serve In 60
44 First Serve Won 44
28 Second Serve Won 19
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Eastbourne · 2024-06-24

R16

Miomir Kecmanovic #53

Sebastian Baez #18

6-3 6-2
8 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 2
55 Service Points 48
37 First Serve In 34
26 First Serve Won 19
11 Second Serve Won 7
3 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Sebastian Baez — Last 10

L L W L L W W W L W

Miomir Kecmanovic — Last 10

L L W L W L W L L W