ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

39.03%

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

60.97%

Average Odds

1.79 / 2.00

Market probability

52.77% / 47.23%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1663 vs 1491), a stronger serve (67.1% vs 58.9% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (68 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1769.5 Elo 1674.7

1490.8 Elo (surface) 1662.8

145 Wins 63

38 Wins (surface) 39

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.847 Dominance ratio 1.098

53 Rank 81

25.6 Age 25.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Mattia Bellucci

1st Serve In %

63.0%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

42.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

35.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Mattia Bellucci

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 0 Mattia Bellucci

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Sebastian Baez #48

Mattia Bellucci #80

7-5 6-3

2 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 6

67 Service Points 62

39 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 29

17 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

14 Winners 12

24 Unforced Errors 42

1.8 Average Odds 2

Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci — Prediction