ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · SF 03:35

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

43.23%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

56.77%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.42

Market probability

61.27% / 38.73%

Why This Prediction?

Lloyd Harris is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1751 vs 1583), a stronger serve (71.0% vs 59.7% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (119 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1786.8 Elo 1731.5

1583.3 Elo (surface) 1751.2

66 Wins (Challenger) 148

2 Wins (surface) 119

11 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.335 Dominance ratio 1.100

53 Rank 175

25.6 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

63.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 1 Lloyd Harris

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-23

SF

Sebastian Baez #53

Lloyd Harris #175

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 58

34 First Serve In 35

29 First Serve Won 24

9 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

R128

Lloyd Harris #353

Sebastian Baez #39

6-3 7-5 6-4

9 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 2

84 Service Points 94

54 First Serve In 77

43 First Serve Won 45

16 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction