ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 07:10

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

58.11%

Jenson Brooksby

USA

41.89%

Average Odds

2.28 / 1.61

Market probability

41.39% / 58.61%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Baez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1908 vs 1850), a stronger return game (46.4% vs 37.8% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1836 vs 1806).

Player Comparison

1907.8 Elo 1850.0

1836.0 Elo (surface) 1805.9

148 Wins 94

41 Wins (surface) 63

7 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.760 Dominance ratio 0.812

51 Rank 77

25.7 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jenson Brooksby

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Jenson Brooksby

1st Serve In %

63.0%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Jenson Brooksby

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 2 – 0 Jenson Brooksby

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-23

1. round

Jenson Brooksby #77

Sebastian Baez #51

7-5 7-5

7 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 48

7 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 2

26 Winners 33

17 Unforced Errors 28

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Rome Masters · 2026-05-06

R128

Sebastian Baez #65

Jenson Brooksby #63

6-3 7-6(8)

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

72 Service Points 74

55 First Serve In 48

37 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Auckland · 2026-01-12

R16

Sebastian Baez #39

Jenson Brooksby #48

7-5 6-0

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

68 Service Points 53

55 First Serve In 35

33 First Serve Won 16

7 Second Serve Won 6

7 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 6