ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

34.00%

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

66.00%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.65

Market probability

42.42% / 57.58%

Why This Prediction?

Grigor Dimitrov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1853 vs 1510), a higher Elo rating (1811 vs 1767) and more wins on hard courts (341 vs 39).

Player Comparison

1767.2 Elo 1810.8

1510.2 Elo (surface) 1853.1

146 Wins 514

39 Wins (surface) 341

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.829 Dominance ratio 0.878

48 Rank 137

25.6 Age 35.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Grigor Dimitrov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Grigor Dimitrov

1st Serve In %

63.0%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Grigor Dimitrov

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 0 Grigor Dimitrov

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Sebastian Baez #48

Grigor Dimitrov #137

1-6 6-3 6-4

1 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 7

77 Service Points 76

47 First Serve In 43

30 First Serve Won 35

19 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6

12 Winners 26

31 Unforced Errors 48

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov — Prediction