ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Coleman Wong

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · QF 05:30

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

36.86%

Coleman Wong

Hong Kong

63.14%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.20

Market probability

57.44% / 42.56%

Why This Prediction?

Coleman Wong is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1709 vs 1556), a stronger serve (68.5% vs 59.7% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (80 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1778.4 Elo 1676.9

1556.5 Elo (surface) 1709.2

65 Wins (Challenger) 88

1 Wins (surface) 80

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.256 Dominance ratio 1.075

53 Rank 93

25.6 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Coleman Wong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Coleman Wong

1st Serve In %

63.0%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

59.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Coleman Wong

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 0 Coleman Wong

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-22

QF

Sebastian Baez #53

Coleman Wong #93

6-4 6-0

3 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 4

43 Service Points 58

27 First Serve In 24

23 First Serve Won 14

9 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Sebastian Baez vs Coleman Wong — Prediction