ATP tennis predict — Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · R16

Predicted probability

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

70.93%

Arthur Rinderknech

France

29.07%

Average Odds

1.81 / 1.99

Market probability

52.37% / 47.63%

Why This Prediction?

Sebastian Baez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1827 vs 1660), a higher Elo rating (1773 vs 1707) and a stronger return game (46.2% vs 33.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1772.6 Elo 1707.1

1827.4 Elo (surface) 1659.7

144 Wins 149

103 Wins (surface) 40

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.817 Dominance ratio 1.231

56 Rank 27

25.6 Age 31.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Rinderknech

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Arthur Rinderknech

1st Serve In %

63.0%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.7%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.4%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.8%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sebastian Baez Arthur Rinderknech

Break Points Saved %

52.7%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

73.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sebastian Baez 0 – 0 Arthur Rinderknech

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-22

R16

Sebastian Baez #56

Arthur Rinderknech #27

7-6 2-6 6-4

2 Aces 21

2 Double Faults 6

97 Service Points 102

66 First Serve In 63

43 First Serve Won 48

18 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6

36 Winners 59

28 Unforced Errors 52

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech — Prediction