ATP tennis predict — Samuele Pieri vs Daniel Rincon

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Samuele Pieri

Italy

19.09%

Daniel Rincon

Spain

80.91%

Average Odds

6.13 / 1.09

Market probability

15.10% / 84.90%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1688 vs 1407), a higher Elo rating (1729 vs 1643) and more wins on hard courts (35 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1643.3 Elo 1728.9

1407.4 Elo (surface) 1688.1

22 Wins (Challenger) 111

0 Wins (surface) 35

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.913 Dominance ratio 1.016

320 Rank 245

24.6 Age 23.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Samuele Pieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samuele Pieri Daniel Rincon

1st Serve In %

—

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.2%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

55.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.9%

46.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samuele Pieri Daniel Rincon

Break Points Saved %

—

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.6%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Samuele Pieri and Daniel Rincon have never played each other.

Samuele Pieri vs Daniel Rincon — Prediction