ATP tennis predict — Samuel Heredia vs Juan Sebastian Osorio

Challenger Clay Curitiba challenger · qualification - round of 16 15:00

Predicted probability

Samuel Heredia

Colombia

61.97%

Juan Sebastian Osorio

Colombia

38.03%

Average Odds

1.73 / 2.00

Market probability

53.62% / 46.38%

Why This Prediction?

Samuel Heredia is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1513 vs 1429), a higher Elo rating (1464 vs 1435) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 62.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1463.9 Elo 1434.6

1512.5 Elo (surface) 1428.6

13 Wins (Challenger) 12

11 Wins (surface) 9

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.923 Dominance ratio 0.998

655 Rank 704

20.3 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Samuel Heredia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Juan Sebastian Osorio

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samuel Heredia Juan Sebastian Osorio

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samuel Heredia Juan Sebastian Osorio

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

36.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Samuel Heredia 1 – 0 Juan Sebastian Osorio

Clay Cali CH · 2024-09-16

Q1

Samuel Heredia #1685

Juan Sebastian Osorio #995

2-6 7-6(2) 4-1 RET

9 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

91 Service Points 84

52 First Serve In 47

36 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Samuel Heredia vs Juan Sebastian Osorio — Prediction