ATP tennis predict — Samir Hamza Reguig vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Samir Hamza Reguig

Algeria

28.99%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

71.01%

Average Odds

8.57 / 1.06

Market probability

11.01% / 88.99%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1554), a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1596) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 54.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1595.5 Elo 1745.1

1553.7 Elo (surface) 1715.6

8 Wins (Challenger) 29

5 Wins (surface) 29

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.856 Dominance ratio 1.032

682 Rank 312

24.6 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Samir Hamza Reguig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samir Hamza Reguig Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.6%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.51

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Samir Hamza Reguig Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Samir Hamza Reguig 0 – 0 Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #312

Samir Hamza Reguig #682

6-2 6-1

2 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

15 First Serve Won 22

4 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 8.6

Samir Hamza Reguig vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction