ATP tennis predict — Saba Purtseladze vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Saba Purtseladze

Georgia

40.00%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

60.00%

Average Odds

2.76 / 1.34

Market probability

32.68% / 67.32%

Why This Prediction?

Mert Alkaya is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1503 vs 1328), fewer double faults per game (0.16 vs 0.39) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1328.4 Elo 1502.8

1521.1 Elo (surface) 1495.0

26 Wins (Challenger) 17

23 Wins (surface) 16

3 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.817 Dominance ratio 0.895

659 Rank 299

25.0 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Saba Purtseladze

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Saba Purtseladze Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.8%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.46

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Saba Purtseladze Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

24.3%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Saba Purtseladze 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Mert Alkaya #299

Saba Purtseladze #659

7-6 6-4

3 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 1

71 Service Points 79

45 First Serve In 55

30 First Serve Won 41

10 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 2.8

Saba Purtseladze vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction