ATP tennis predict — Saba Purtseladze vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · QF 14:00

Predicted probability

Saba Purtseladze

Georgia

16.16%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

83.84%

Average Odds

8.20 / 1.06

Market probability

11.45% / 88.55%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1646 vs 1337), a higher Elo rating (1625 vs 1401) and more wins on clay courts (56 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1401.0 Elo 1625.1

1337.5 Elo (surface) 1646.4

29 Wins (Challenger) 76

5 Wins (surface) 56

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.922 Dominance ratio 0.941

659 Rank 257

25.0 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Saba Purtseladze

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Saba Purtseladze Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

59.1%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.8%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.7%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.46

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Saba Purtseladze Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

24.3%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Saba Purtseladze 0 – 0 Matej Dodig

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Matej Dodig #257

Saba Purtseladze #659

2-2

1 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

13 Service Points 12

7 First Serve In 10

5 First Serve Won 8

4 Second Serve Won 1

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 8.2

Saba Purtseladze vs Matej Dodig — Prediction