ATP tennis predict — Ryan Nijboer vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · R16 14:00

Predicted probability

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

34.37%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

65.63%

Average Odds

2.71 / 1.42

Market probability

34.38% / 65.62%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1764 vs 1603), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1769 vs 1626) and more wins on clay courts (54 vs 50).

Player Comparison

1602.9 Elo 1764.4

1626.4 Elo (surface) 1768.9

54 Wins (Challenger) 79

50 Wins (surface) 54

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.861 Dominance ratio 0.881

417 Rank 239

27.2 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ryan Nijboer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ryan Nijboer Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

60.8%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

50.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

43.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

41.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ryan Nijboer Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

68.6%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

61.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ryan Nijboer and Marvin Moeller have never played each other.

Ryan Nijboer vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction