ATP tennis predict — Ryan Colby vs Spencer Johnson

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Ryan Colby

USA

22.29%

Spencer Johnson

USA

77.71%

Average Odds

4.35 / 1.17

Market probability

21.20% / 78.80%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1615 vs 1456), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1625 vs 1474) and more career match wins (9 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1456.2 Elo 1614.8

1474.1 Elo (surface) 1624.8

2 Wins (Challenger) 9

1 Wins (surface) 9

2 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.840 Dominance ratio 0.946

662 Rank 529

None Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ryan Colby

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ryan Colby Spencer Johnson

1st Serve In %

52.6%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

45.0%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

16.7%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

18.8%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

8.3%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.83

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ryan Colby Spencer Johnson

Break Points Saved %

33.3%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.7%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ryan Colby 0 – 0 Spencer Johnson

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Spencer Johnson #524

Ryan Colby #664

6-1 6-7 7-6

1 Aces 8

13 Double Faults 5

104 Service Points 101

51 First Serve In 61

30 First Serve Won 46

24 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Ryan Colby vs Spencer Johnson — Prediction