ATP tennis predict — Roman Safiullin vs Stan Wawrinka

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · R16 01:50

Predicted probability

Roman Safiullin

Russia

66.51%

Stan Wawrinka

Switzerland

33.49%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.75

Market probability

65.95% / 34.05%

Why This Prediction?

Roman Safiullin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1773 vs 1698), more wins on hard courts (100 vs 22) and a lighter recent match load (19 vs 26 games played recently).

Player Comparison

1773.1 Elo 1698.2

1699.1 Elo (surface) 1755.8

150 Wins (Challenger) 86

100 Wins (surface) 22

13 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.122 Dominance ratio 1.222

103 Rank 125

29.0 Age 41.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stan Wawrinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Stan Wawrinka

1st Serve In %

65.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.8%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Stan Wawrinka

Break Points Saved %

67.6%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

67.6%

Break Points Converted %

56.0%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Safiullin 1 – 1 Stan Wawrinka

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-21

R16

Roman Safiullin #103

Stan Wawrinka #125

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 56

31 First Serve In 24

25 First Serve Won 16

17 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Beijing · 2024-09-26

R32

Roman Safiullin #69

Stan Wawrinka #233

6-3 6-4

11 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

63 Service Points 61

37 First Serve In 29

31 First Serve Won 19

13 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Prague CH · 2020-08-17

R32

Stan Wawrinka #17

Roman Safiullin #178

6-1 4-6 6-1

5 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

85 Service Points 91

42 First Serve In 58

26 First Serve Won 29

26 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Roman Safiullin vs Stan Wawrinka — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Roman Safiullin — Last 10

Stan Wawrinka — Last 10