ATP tennis predict — Roman Safiullin vs Shintaro Mochizuki

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Roman Safiullin

Russia

77.67%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

22.33%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.48

Market probability

79.01% / 20.99%

Why This Prediction?

Roman Safiullin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1955 vs 1760), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1848 vs 1656) and a stronger serve (69.4% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1955.0 Elo 1759.7

1848.4 Elo (surface) 1655.9

107 Wins 58

67 Wins (surface) 40

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.185 Dominance ratio 1.022

79 Rank 123

29.2 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

65.2%

48.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.7%

44.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.5%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

58.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.71

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

65.1%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.1%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

56.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Safiullin and Shintaro Mochizuki have never played each other.

Roman Safiullin vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction