ATP tennis predict — Roman Safiullin vs Hubert Hurkacz

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · QF 23:00

Predicted probability

Roman Safiullin

Russia

38.89%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

61.11%

Average Odds

2.75 / 1.41

Market probability

33.89% / 66.11%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1802 vs 1699), a higher Elo rating (1834 vs 1773) and more aces per game (0.41 vs 0.31).

Player Comparison

1773.1 Elo 1834.2

1699.1 Elo (surface) 1802.4

150 Wins (Challenger) 103

100 Wins (surface) 65

13 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.122 Dominance ratio 1.202

103 Rank 69

29.0 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

65.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.8%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

67.6%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

56.0%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Safiullin 0 – 1 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-21

QF

Hubert Hurkacz #69

Roman Safiullin #103

6-4 6-3

4 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

54 Service Points 75

35 First Serve In 54

25 First Serve Won 41

10 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Shenzhen CH · 2017-10-30

Q2

Hubert Hurkacz #343

Roman Safiullin #462

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

59 Service Points 51

44 First Serve In 32

34 First Serve Won 19

5 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Roman Safiullin vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction