ATP tennis predict — Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Roman Safiullin

Russia

12.31%

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

87.69%

Average Odds

4.64 / 1.20

Market probability

20.55% / 79.45%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2071 vs 1758), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1979 vs 1690) and a stronger return game (44.4% vs 35.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1758.1 Elo 2070.9

1690.0 Elo (surface) 1978.7

102 Wins 312

62 Wins (surface) 164

8 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.204 Dominance ratio 1.336

99 Rank 3

29.1 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Carlos Alcaraz

1st Serve In %

65.5%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.8%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Safiullin Carlos Alcaraz

Break Points Saved %

67.6%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

56.0%

53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Safiullin 1 – 1 Carlos Alcaraz

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Roman Safiullin #99

6-4 6-4 6-4

9 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 5

90 Service Points 100

59 First Serve In 68

38 First Serve Won 45

17 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 6

28 Winners 28

36 Unforced Errors 27

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Clay Paris Olympics · 2024-07-29

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Roman Safiullin #66

6-4 6-2

5 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 4

47 Service Points 58

30 First Serve In 41

24 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2023-10-30

R32

Roman Safiullin #45

Carlos Alcaraz #2

6-3 6-4

1 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 54

35 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8