ATP tennis predict — Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Karen Khachanov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Argentina

21.20%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

78.80%

Average Odds

3.98 / 1.25

Market probability

23.90% / 76.10%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1766 vs 1460), a higher Elo rating (1769 vs 1633) and more wins on hard courts (217 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1632.9 Elo 1768.5

1460.1 Elo (surface) 1765.6

38 Wins 342

5 Wins (surface) 217

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.907 Dominance ratio 1.121

59 Rank 50

24.6 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

57.4%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Andres Burruchaga 0 – 1 Karen Khachanov

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Karen Khachanov #50

Roman Andres Burruchaga #59

6-3 6-0 6-1

0 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 63

43 First Serve In 32

24 First Serve Won 27

7 Second Serve Won 19

0 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

8 Winners 19

40 Unforced Errors 28

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

R64

Karen Khachanov #24

Roman Andres Burruchaga #135

6-4 5-7 6-1

5 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

103 Service Points 96

75 First Serve In 62

48 First Serve Won 37

15 Second Serve Won 17

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction