ATP tennis predict — Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Clay Umag · SF

Predicted probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Argentina

39.59%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

60.41%

Average Odds

2.39 / 1.56

Market probability

39.49% / 60.51%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1776 vs 1685), a higher Elo rating (1734 vs 1662) and a stronger serve (62.2% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1661.9 Elo 1734.1

1685.3 Elo (surface) 1775.9

36 Wins 23

28 Wins (surface) 16

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.878 Dominance ratio 0.999

67 Rank 82

24.5 Age 21.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

57.4%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.7%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Andres Burruchaga 0 – 1 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Clay Umag · 2026-07-17

SF

Daniel Merida Aguilar #82

Roman Andres Burruchaga #67

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 48

42 First Serve In 35

23 First Serve Won 25

9 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 4

10 Winners 16

39 Unforced Errors 29

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Modena CH · 2025-06-30

R32

Daniel Merida Aguilar #235

Roman Andres Burruchaga #132

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 4

53 Service Points 50

39 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 22

6 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction