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Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction

ATP Clay Umag · QF

Predicted probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Argentina

22.16%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

77.84%

Average Odds

1.66  /  2.19

Market probability

56.88%  /  43.12%

Why This Prediction?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1827 vs 1644), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1871 vs 1666) and a stronger return game (48.4% vs 44.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1643.7 Elo 1827.1
1665.6 Elo (surface) 1870.6
35 Wins 58
27 Wins (surface) 48
8 Last 15 form 9
3 Head-to-head wins 2
0.863 Dominance ratio 1.005
67 Rank 58
24.5 Age 27.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

57.4%
60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%
66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%
50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%
30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%
53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38
0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%
59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%
70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%
52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%
45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%
52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.10
0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roman Andres Burruchaga Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

54.4%
59.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.7%
52.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%
45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roman Andres Burruchaga 3 – 2 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Clay Umag · 2026-07-16

QF

Roman Andres Burruchaga #67

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #58

6-2 2-6 6-3
4 Aces 2
4 Double Faults 1
70 Service Points 61
42 First Serve In 36
32 First Serve Won 25
14 Second Serve Won 10
4 Break Points Saved 1
7 Break Points Faced 5
21 Winners 9
36 Unforced Errors 37
1.7 Average Odds 2.2
Clay Rio de Janeiro · 2026-02-16

R32

Roman Andres Burruchaga #102

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #46

6-3 6-4
5 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 4
63 Service Points 64
44 First Serve In 32
34 First Serve Won 19
11 Second Serve Won 19
3 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rosario CH · 2026-02-02

F

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #48

Roman Andres Burruchaga #118

6-2 6-3
1 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 4
51 Service Points 71
30 First Serve In 48
20 First Serve Won 25
13 Second Serve Won 10
5 Break Points Saved 10
6 Break Points Faced 15
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Piracicaba CH · 2025-01-27

QF

Roman Andres Burruchaga #152

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #93

7-5 4-5 RET
5 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 3
73 Service Points 74
39 First Serve In 48
26 First Serve Won 31
19 Second Serve Won 11
3 Break Points Saved 4
5 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Guayaquil CH · 2023-10-30

QF

Roman Andres Burruchaga #243

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #153

6-4 5-7 6-1
0 Aces 4
5 Double Faults 5
98 Service Points 88
61 First Serve In 46
36 First Serve Won 30
21 Second Serve Won 14
10 Break Points Saved 2
14 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Antofagasta CH · 2023-09-18

SF

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #196

Roman Andres Burruchaga #269

6-4 6-4
2 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 2
55 Service Points 52
40 First Serve In 36
28 First Serve Won 24
10 Second Serve Won 6
2 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Roman Andres Burruchaga — Last 10

L L L L L W W L W W

Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Last 10

L L W L L L L W W L