ATP tennis predict — Roger Pascual Ferra vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · qualification - 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Roger Pascual Ferra

Spain

58.13%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

41.87%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.10

Market probability

69.82% / 30.18%

Why This Prediction?

Roger Pascual Ferra is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1560 vs 1409) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1541 vs 1427).

Player Comparison

1559.8 Elo 1408.6

1540.7 Elo (surface) 1426.9

3 Wins (Challenger) 8

3 Wins (surface) 6

3 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.949 Dominance ratio 0.973

673 Rank 581

20.4 Age 24.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

1st Serve In %

67.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

60.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.36

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.8%

69.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.8%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

58.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.5%

46.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roger Pascual Ferra 0 – 0 Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-16

qualification - 1. round

Roger Pascual Ferra #682

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #589

6-1 6-4

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 6

44 Service Points 61

21 First Serve In 40

14 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Roger Pascual Ferra vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez — Prediction