ATP tennis predict — Roger Pascual Ferra vs Li Tu

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Roger Pascual Ferra

Spain

41.10%

Li Tu

Australia

58.90%

Average Odds

1.93 / 1.74

Market probability

47.41% / 52.59%

Why This Prediction?

Li Tu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1661 vs 1526), a higher Elo rating (1632 vs 1530) and a stronger serve (67.0% vs 56.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1530.0 Elo 1632.4

1525.9 Elo (surface) 1661.2

4 Wins (Challenger) 76

4 Wins (surface) 72

4 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.976 Dominance ratio 1.148

659 Rank 535

20.5 Age 30.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Li Tu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Li Tu

1st Serve In %

67.6%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.1%

76.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.6%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.4%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.8%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.8%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.09

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Li Tu

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.5%

29.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roger Pascual Ferra 0 – 0 Li Tu

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Roger Pascual Ferra #659

Li Tu #535

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 37

13 Second Serve Won 9

7 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.7

Roger Pascual Ferra vs Li Tu — Prediction