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Roger Pascual Ferra vs Colton Smith — Prediction

ATP Hard Los Cabos · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Average Odds

3.18  /  1.32

Market probability

29.33%  /  70.67%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1733 vs 1534), more wins on hard courts (37 vs 3) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1602 vs 1538).

Player Comparison

1533.9 Elo 1732.7
1537.9 Elo (surface) 1601.8
0 Wins 16
0 Wins (surface) 9
0 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.848 Dominance ratio 0.848
808 Rank 174
20.4 Age 23.4
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.5%
60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%
68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%
49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%
34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%
47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.04
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33
0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roger Pascual Ferra Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.3%
65.6%

Break Points Converted %

55.9%
42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roger Pascual Ferra and Colton Smith have never played each other.

Roger Pascual Ferra — Last 5

L W W W L

Colton Smith — Last 10

W L W W L L L L L W