ATP tennis predict — Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Sho Shimabukuro

ATP Hard Los Cabos · 1. round

Predicted probability

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

40.29%

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

59.71%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.64

Market probability

42.49% / 57.51%

Why This Prediction?

Sho Shimabukuro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1736 vs 1581), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1640 vs 1539) and a stronger serve (66.8% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1580.6 Elo 1736.0

1539.4 Elo (surface) 1640.3

9 Wins 38

7 Wins (surface) 27

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.936 Dominance ratio 0.895

320 Rank 94

21.3 Age 29.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Sho Shimabukuro

1st Serve In %

58.8%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

57.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.7%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Sho Shimabukuro

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

65.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

70.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 0 – 0 Sho Shimabukuro

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-29

1. round

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #320

Sho Shimabukuro #94

6-7 7-5 6-2

6 Aces 6

13 Double Faults 6

133 Service Points 107

65 First Serve In 70

44 First Serve Won 45

28 Second Serve Won 22

12 Break Points Saved 5

18 Break Points Faced 8

37 Winners 23

84 Unforced Errors 50

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Sho Shimabukuro — Prediction