ATP tennis predict — Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · F 05:00

Predicted probability

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

35.76%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

64.24%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.66

Market probability

43.80% / 56.20%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1884 vs 1730), a higher Elo rating (1850 vs 1740) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 57.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1739.9 Elo 1849.9

1730.4 Elo (surface) 1884.0

63 Wins (Challenger) 81

33 Wins (surface) 78

9 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 1.071

269 Rank 177

21.4 Age 22.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

58.8%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.7%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 0 – 0 Ilia Simakin

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-20

F

Ilia Simakin #151

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #261

6-7 6-4 6-3

11 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 8

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

45 First Serve Won 51

15 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction