ATP tennis predict — Roberto Carballes Baena vs Alexander Ritschard

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · 1. round 18:00

Predicted probability

Roberto Carballes Baena

Spain

63.90%

Alexander Ritschard

Switzerland

36.10%

Average Odds

1.77 / 1.96

Market probability

52.55% / 47.45%

Why This Prediction?

Roberto Carballes Baena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1728 vs 1644), more wins on clay courts (252 vs 79) and a higher Elo rating (1665 vs 1635).

Player Comparison

1665.4 Elo 1635.3

1728.0 Elo (surface) 1644.0

269 Wins (Challenger) 161

252 Wins (surface) 79

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.028 Dominance ratio 1.070

209 Rank 638

33.5 Age 32.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Alexander Ritschard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roberto Carballes Baena Alexander Ritschard

1st Serve In %

62.3%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

41.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.9%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Roberto Carballes Baena Alexander Ritschard

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

53.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

55.0%

48.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Roberto Carballes Baena 0 – 0 Alexander Ritschard

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Alexander Ritschard #638

Roberto Carballes Baena #209

7-6 6-3

1 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

65 Service Points 62

46 First Serve In 27

27 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Alexander Ritschard — Prediction