ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Rigele Te

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

86.46%

Rigele Te

China

13.54%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.37

Market probability

72.32% / 27.68%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1587 vs 1284), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1587 vs 1296) and a stronger return game (47.6% vs 31.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1586.5 Elo 1283.7

1587.4 Elo (surface) 1296.2

128 Wins (Challenger) 17

117 Wins (surface) 15

8 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.206 Dominance ratio 0.719

219 Rank 1058

27.7 Age 28.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Rigele Te

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Rigele Te

1st Serve In %

65.5%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Rigele Te

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

29.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi 0 – 0 Rigele Te

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Rio Noguchi #219

Rigele Te #1058

7-6 6-2

1 Aces 12

1 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 76

42 First Serve In 44

33 First Serve Won 32

8 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Rio Noguchi vs Rigele Te — Prediction