ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Omar Jasika

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

80.23%

Omar Jasika

Australia

19.77%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.57

Market probability

63.77% / 36.23%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1691 vs 1490), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1676 vs 1482) and a stronger return game (46.5% vs 39.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1690.6 Elo 1490.0

1675.9 Elo (surface) 1481.6

129 Wins (Challenger) 110

118 Wins (surface) 107

8 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.205 Dominance ratio 1.182

219 Rank 408

27.7 Age 29.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Omar Jasika

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Omar Jasika

1st Serve In %

65.5%

68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

55.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

40.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

68.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Omar Jasika

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

43.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi 1 – 0 Omar Jasika

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Omar Jasika #408

Rio Noguchi #219

6-2 7-5

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 34

10 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Playford CH · 2022-10-24

SF

Rio Noguchi #246

Omar Jasika #280

7-6(4) 7-5

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 87

67 First Serve In 58

40 First Serve Won 35

14 Second Serve Won 11

8 Break Points Saved 10

11 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rio Noguchi vs Omar Jasika — Prediction