ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Rice

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

69.44%

Keegan Rice

Canada

30.56%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.33

Market probability

60.05% / 39.95%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1615 vs 1491), a higher Elo rating (1607 vs 1488) and more wins on hard courts (115 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1606.9 Elo 1488.3

1614.6 Elo (surface) 1491.3

126 Wins (Challenger) 5

115 Wins (surface) 5

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.273 Dominance ratio 1.060

216 Rank 900

27.6 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Keegan Rice

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Keegan Rice

1st Serve In %

65.5%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

81.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

7.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Keegan Rice

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi 0 – 0 Keegan Rice

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Rio Noguchi #216

Keegan Rice #900

3-6 6-4 6-0

0 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 79

52 First Serve In 43

29 First Serve Won 24

19 Second Serve Won 13

9 Break Points Saved 7

13 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Rice — Prediction