ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

68.98%

Charles Broom

Great Britain

31.02%

Average Odds

1.74 / 2.01

Market probability

53.60% / 46.40%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (46.4% vs 33.3% of return points won), a higher Elo rating (1616 vs 1558) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1624 vs 1575).

Player Comparison

1615.8 Elo 1557.6

1624.0 Elo (surface) 1575.2

127 Wins (Challenger) 70

116 Wins (surface) 51

9 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.241 Dominance ratio 0.719

216 Rank 280

27.6 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Charles Broom

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Charles Broom

1st Serve In %

65.5%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Charles Broom

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

60.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

32.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi 1 – 0 Charles Broom

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-24

QF

Charles Broom #280

Rio Noguchi #216

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 54

34 First Serve In 37

18 First Serve Won 23

5 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-13

1. round

Rio Noguchi #222

Charles Broom #283

6-2 4-6 7-5

0 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 4

105 Service Points 86

66 First Serve In 47

41 First Serve Won 26

22 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom — Prediction