ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

45.47%

Braden Shick

USA

54.53%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.79

Market probability

50.14% / 49.86%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1590.1 Elo 1680.8

1595.4 Elo (surface) 1722.8

125 Wins (Challenger) 15

114 Wins (surface) 13

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.256 Dominance ratio 0.970

216 Rank 234

27.6 Age 22.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Braden Shick

1st Serve In %

65.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

42.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Braden Shick

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi 0 – 0 Braden Shick

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Rio Noguchi #216

Braden Shick #234

5-7 6-3 6-2

0 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 3

86 Service Points 122

57 First Serve In 78

35 First Serve Won 43

19 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 11

9 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick — Prediction